The HVA attempts to identify the most likely hazards that may affect Liberty County and the communities within the county. These are by no means the only possible incidents that could occur in the county.

The Liberty County Emergency Management Agency (EMA) conducts annual briefings with all county and city employees on the potential hazards and vulnerable areas of the communities within the county. Modifications are made to the HVA based on a continued assessment of risks countywide. A specific threat analysis review occurs each year with State assistance.

Some hazardous events occur on an almost annual basis; others may not occur within a lifetime. Additionally, not every hazardous event occurs with notable damage or loss of life. For this reason, hazards are assessed by comparing the experienced frequency of the event versus the potential impact that may result.

Planning begins with events that are expected to occur often and have potentially high impacts on life and property followed by those with more moderate probabilities or moderate impacts. Jurisdictional strategies are dependent on the philosophy and experiences of local officials.

Predictability and detection are impacted by the degree of activity within the county of persons with relationships to terrorist linked individuals and groups. Targets include all Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA) Title III sites, Blue Water Nuclear Power Station, Columbia State University, and other governmental and non-governmental (private sector) facilities in the county. Other potential targets include large venues such as the sports venues, Liberty Coliseum, and Convention Center. There are reports of militia-style groups using the Mineral Mountains as a training area.

Based upon factors such as law enforcement intelligence, simplicity of attack, and degree of damage, conventional explosive attacks are viewed as having the highest probability. Biological events, particularly those with Category A agents, while perceived as less likely, have the potential for severe impact. As a result, they are of primary concern.

Detection of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) materials is dependent upon available intelligence disseminated to the appropriate parties. This intelligence, coupled with proper application of detection tools and techniques, will assist Liberty County in detecting potential WMD materials (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and high-yield explosives) at the ports of entry and preventing their use within Columbia and the Nation. Five national ports of entry are within Liberty County, requiring coordination with Canada and Mexico.

Customs and Border Protection (CBP) screen ships, trains, and truck cargo coming into and going out of the Port of Bayport. Passengers and crews on cruise ships are also screened at the port. CBP also screens passengers, crews, and cargo coming into and out of the Liberty International Airport, Capital City Regional Airport, and Metropolis Regional Airport.

In addition, the United States and the State of Columbia have established cargo monitoring stations on the Great Atlantic and Pacific (GA&P) Railroad where the railroad enters the State of Columbia, the GA&P has three main lines traveling east and west through the cities of Metropolis, Central City, Tower Beach, and Bayport. Monitoring stations for these rail lines are located in Tower Beach, Clifton, Brooksville, and seven miles west of Red Cloud in Cass County.

Several major Interstate Highways and State Routes (SRs) cross through the State of Columbia. Many have weigh stations where cargo is monitored. The highways with weigh stations are Interstates 102 and 107; SRs 5, 7, 10, 12, 14, 15, 18, 19, 20; and Coastal Highway SR 1. These weigh stations not only ensure that trucks coming into and passing through Columbia meet requirements but are also able to screen trucks for WMD cargo and illegal immigrants.

The following table provides information on ports of entry and highway weigh stations.

Frequency is dependent on law enforcement risk assessments, which are based on local, tribal, State, and Federal intelligence gathering and analysis operations as coordinated through the Columbia State Fusion Center in the Department of Public Safety, Capital City.

Prevention is dependent on coordinated actions in response to detection of potential WMD materials at the inspection station.

Controllability is dependent on a coordinated and planned response to the event by crisis and consequences management agencies. In terms of a biological attack, the health care community’s ability for early detection, identification, and rapid epidemiologic investigations will invariably impact the control of the agent.

Duration of a terrorist event could be from a few hours to more than one week, depending upon the type of CBRNE event.

Scope of damage may be widespread, affecting life, property, and the economy, or it may be very narrow in scope. Scope of damage is also depends upon the type of CBRNE event.

Intensity of impact of a terrorist event would seriously impair life, property, and the economy. Mass casualties may be expected.

Predictability of a hurricae affecting Liberty County and coastal Columbia is certain, based on past experience with several major storms, including Hurricane Edward in 1997, which was one of the most devastating storms ever recorded. Minimum daylight warning time for hurricane landfall is 18–24 hours.

Frequency of a major hurricane (Category Three to Five) has historically been one every ten years. Minor storms, including the classic northeaster, can be expected as often as every year.

Controllability of hurricane damage is limited to the mitigation measures of building codes, land- use management, and setback and elevation criteria. Like many coastal States, Columbia can be viewed as a victim of its own success; southeastern Columbia is very susceptible to the extreme forces of nature due to overbuilding and population build-up in the coastal areas.

Duration of the actual immediate impact is from several hours to several days, depending upon the forward movement of the hurricane. The duration of the aftereffects varies with the severity of the storm and can range from several days to several years.

Depending on the severity of the hurricane, scope of damages ranges from minimal damage to nearly total destruction of community facilities, businesses, and residences. Building collapses and major flooding may create major mass casualty incidents.

Intensity of impact ranges with scope and location of damage.

Storm surge could have a major impact on southern Columbia. The State of Columbia and Liberty, Stramford, and Green Counties have historically been impacted by storm surges from hurricanes. The communities of Tower Beach, Bayport, Buffets Landing, Fisherville, Casperville, LaPort, Monroe, Coale, Pony, Deep River, and Zurich are all at risk of a storm surge from a hurricane. Deep River and Pony, although inland, could be impacted by a storm surge running up the Roaring River and/or the Turtle River.

The following map shows the areas of Columbia that will potentially be impacted by a hurricane storm surge.

See the Hurricane Edward After Action Report in Section 3.2.

Hurricane Edward moved offshore past Columbia on Wednesday, June 21, 2007, with little wind force but brought torrential rains. The storm caused Roaring River to overflow. Because the ground was saturated from previous rains, it could not absorb the water in low-lying areas.

The Liberty County Emergency Management organization was activated on the evening of June 21. Roaring River overflowed its banks in the early morning hours of June 22, causing $28.3 million worth of damage, 28 deaths, 656 injuries, and the evacuation of 75,000 people from low-lying areas in Liberty County.

The plans, procedures, resources, and communications systems did not achieve the Emergency Management Center’s objectives. The following list of shortcomings was derived from an analysis of the operations initiated by Liberty County Emergency Management in response to Hurricane Edward.

Possibility (predictability) of flooding on the Roaring River, Turtle River, East Lake River, Muddy Creek, and Mineral Creek is enhanced through the rain gauge system and staff gauge installation established in 1992. The system is owned and monitored by the Department of Emergency Management and the Liberty County Department of Public Works. Other streams and rivers in Liberty County are not monitored.

Frequency of moderate flooding is at least once a year; major flooding is generally limited to once in five years. A severe flood in 1997 killed 28 people, injured 656, and caused the evacuation of 75,000; it also heavily damaged 377 permanent homes, 65 businesses, and completely destroyed 203 mobile homes.

Controllability of flood damage is limited to land-use management and elevation criteria. Clearance of debris along stream ways can also affect flooding. Snow runoff and ice damming are not considered to be major contributors to flooding in Columbia.

Duration of actual immediate impact is from several hours to several days.

Scope of damage ranges with the severity of the flood and damages from minimal to nearly total destruction of community facilities, business, or residences.

Intensity of impact ranges from a few houses to several hundred houses involved and may include road and utility washouts and bridge damage.

Dam Break Flooding from East Lake Dam and all of the other dams in Columbia could threaten areas that have not historically had flooding problems. Catastrophic failure of East Lake Dam could impact Liberty County and Central City. Floods from the East Lake River, Roaring River, Swatera Creek, and Turtle River could impact the communities along their banks following the failure of the East Lake Dam. If the failure occurs during a period of heavy rains, all four waterways could be impacted and flooding could occur along their banks. The following three maps show the flood zones in Liberty County and in Central City.

Flood Inundation Maps of Liberty County show elevation contours and the 2, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 year flood zones for Central City and northern and southern Liberty County. Also shown on the South Liberty County Map are the areas of expected flooding during a hurricane.

Predictability of an earthquake in Liberty County is limited to early history (1911) and knowledge of tectonic studies and seismic information. The county is vulnerable to the Apple Valley Fault Zone.

Frequency of earthquake activity is limited to a few minor tremors, detectable only by instrumentation and activity noted in the 1911 Apple Valley quake and again in 1959 and last year.

Controllability of earthquake damage is limited to local plans and quake-proof buildings should be built to seismic codes/standard.

Duration of earthquake damage can range from minutes to years.

Scope of damages varies, depending on the severity of the quake. However, it is noted that Columbia has not been involved in programs to quake-proof buildings. Thus, most buildings, particularly pre-1990 unreinforced masonry buildings, are susceptible to major damage.

Intensity of impact ranges from minor impact to major damage.

Predictability of tornadoes in Liberty County is uncertain since the county lies on the edge of the National Weather Service (NWS) Doppler radar system located in Capital City.

Frequency of a major tornado, based on past history, is approximately two to three years, with two or three minor yearly occurrences, including straight line shear winds.

Minor tornado define as EF-0 to EF-3 and major as EF-4 and EF-5. Major tornadoes don't happen very often, i.e. EF-5 1% of the time, so much more likely to encounter a minor tornado.

Controllability of tornado damage is limited to local plans, building codes, and rapid warning.

Duration of actual onslaught is relatively short.

Depending on the severity of a tornado, the scope of damages ranges from moderate to total destruction.

Intensity of impact includes the scope and location of damage.

Predictability of a wildland fire is based on the condition of natural growth along with the impact of weather. Of concern are Van Deusen Park, Gish Island Wildlife Preserve, Masland Island, Casper Park, and the Mineral Mountains.

Frequency of wildland fires in Liberty County, based on experience, is approximately 150 natural cover and wildland interface fires each year.

Controllability of a wildland fire is limited by weather conditions, the topography of the fire’s location, and the capability to rapidly mobilize and deploy firefighting resources.

Duration of a fire could be from a few days to several months.

Scope of damage could be widespread, affecting life, property, and the economy.

Intensity of impact of a wildland fire could adversely affect and seriously impair life, property, and the economy for an extended period of time.

Predictability of a severe weather event is based on the capability of the NWS and other private and public weather forecasting and monitoring services to correctly predict pending storms.

Frequency of a severe weather event, based on experience, is approximately two severe and eleven moderate storms per year.

Controllability of a severe weather event is limited to mitigation measures carried out prior to a disaster to reduce the impacts of high wind, hail, and flooding.

Duration of a severe weather event could be from a few hours to several weeks. Scope of damage could be widespread, affecting life, property, and the economy.

Scope will vary depending on the type and intensity of the storm.

Intensity of impact of severe weather would seriously impair life, transportation, property, and the economy.

Predictability of a winter storm is based on the capability of the NWS and other private and public weather forecasting and monitoring services to correctly predict pending storms.

Frequency of a winter storm, based on experience, is one storm involving the accumulation of five inches of snow or more and three storms involving the accumulation of 0.5 to 5 inches experienced annually.

Controllability of a winter storm is limited to pre-disaster mitigation measures to reduce the impacts of snow and improve response by streets and road snow plowing crews.

Duration of a winter storm ranges from less than one hour to several days.

Scope of damage could be widespread, affecting life, property, and the economy.

Intensity of impact of a winter storm would seriously impair life, transportation, property, and the economy.

Predictability of a blizzard is based on the capability of the NWS and other private and public weather forecasting and monitoring services to correctly predict and track pending storms.

Frequency of a blizzard, based on experience, is one blizzard of more than 25 inches accumulation every 25 years.

Controllability of a blizzard is limited to pre-disaster mitigation measures to reduce the impacts of snow and improve response by streets and road snow plowing crews supported by policy making on the part of elected officials to ban travel.

Duration of a blizzard can range from several hours to more than one week.

Scope of damage could be widespread, affecting life, property, and the economy.

Intensity of impact of a blizzard storm would seriously impair life, transportation, property, and the economy.

Predictability of an ice storm is based on the capability of the NWS and other private and public weather forecasting and monitoring services to correctly predict and track pending storms.

Frequency of an ice storm, based on experience, is one ice storm of more than one inch accumulation of ice every twenty-five years and one storm of less than one inch every five years.

Controllability of an ice storm is limited to pre-disaster mitigation measures. Mitigation measures, supported by elected officials and policy, reduce the impacts of ice accumulation and response. Policy may include banning travel, having streets plowed by snow crews, and having utilities to maintain service.

Duration of an ice storm ranges from several hours to more than one month.

Scope of damage could be widespread, affecting life, property, and the economy.

Intensity of impact of an ice storm would seriously impair transportation, property, and the economy.

Predictability of an agricultural disaster is based on the condition of transportation systems and the impact of severe weather.

Frequency of an agricultural disaster in historical record is limited, though there are recent concerns about drought.

Controllability of an agricultural disaster is limited to conservation and rationing measures.

Duration of an agricultural disaster could range from a few weeks to several years.

Scope of damage could be widespread, affecting agricultural production and distribution, prices, property, and the economy.

Intensity of impact of an agricultural disaster would seriously impair life, property, and the economy.

Predictability of a drought or other water shortage is based on the condition of public and private water sources and the impact of severe weather.

Frequency of a drought or other water shortage in historical record is limited. However, global warming may be creating a more frequent occurrence of droughts.

Controllability of a drought or other water shortage is limited to the mitigation measures of conserving and rationing and the provisioning of alternate sources of supply. There has been water restrictions imposed twice in the last decade.

Duration of a drought or other water shortage could range from a few days to several years.

Scope of damage could be local or widespread, affecting life, property, and the economy of the county.

Intensity of impact of a drought or other water shortage would seriously impair life, property, and the economy.

Predictability of a communicable disease outbreak reaching Liberty County is based upon a number of factors, including the susceptibility of the population, the general health of the community, the weather, the distribution and efficacy of vaccines, and the efforts of the international community to manage emerging threats. Emerging strains of Avian Influenza (Influenza A), also known as bird flu, are currently the greatest risks.

The frequency with in the United States (U.S.) National Strategy for Pandemic affirms, communicable disease outbreak have occurred intermittently over centuries. The last three pandemics (in 1918, 1957, and 1968) killed approximately 40 million, 2 million, and 1 million people worldwide, respectively. Although the timing cannot be predicted, history and science suggest that communicable disease outbreaks will happen more and more in this century.

Controllability of communicable disease outbreak is related to the particular characteristics of the illness. Presently, an emerging Influenza A - sub-strain type H5N1, is a risk that is being closely monitored by community officials. A notable feature of the H5N1 virus is its ability to infect a wide range of hosts, including birds and humans. To date, the virus is known to have infected birds in 16 countries and killed approximately 200 million birds across Asia. Additionally, 121 people in four countries are known to have contracted the illness, causing 62 deaths over the past two years.

Duration of a communicable disease outbreak could be from a few months to, more likely, a year to several years.

Scope of damage would be catastrophic, particularly in terms of loss of life. Based upon previous communicable disease outbreak, fatalities could reach tens of thousands within the community in addition to hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations. The impact on the economy, both in terms of direct and indirect costs, would be similarly devastating.

Intensity of impact of a communicable disease outbreak would adversely affect and seriously impair life and the economy for an extended period of time.

Predictability of enemy military attack is considered low as based on an assessment of international tension and world events. Liberty County is listed as a host area for residents from other more vulnerable locations in the State of Columbia; although this possibility is somewhat heightened due to the Blue Water Nuclear Power Station being a potential target for an enemy military attack.

Frequency of enemy military attack is limited to historical evidence and past conflicts. This is tempered by the international capability of weapon carrying missiles.

Controllability of enemy military attack is vested with the Federal government. Federal organizations have resources and personnel for the four phases of attack activity. State and local governments have preparedness, response, and recovery capability, including shelter management and radiological monitoring. Local government must deal with initial response alone until outside help is mobilized.

Duration of enemy attack could be from a period of a few minutes, if the incident is nuclear, to weeks or months if it is conventional, biological, or chemical in nature.

Scope of damage of an enemy attack would be widespread, possibly nationwide. Life, property, and the economy would be affected. The attack could initiate many of the hazards identified below.

Intensity of impact would be widespread, if not nationwide. Life, property, and the economy would be adversely affected and seriously impaired, dependent upon the outcome and damage incurred.

Predictability of a fixed site hazardous materials accident is uncertain due to lack of fixed site monitoring equipment. Hazardous materials are commonly used and produced in Liberty County in quantities which, if released into the environment during an accident, could be harmful or injurious to humans, animals, property, and the economy.

Frequency of a fixed site hazardous materials accident ranges from five or more minor incidents a year to one of major consequence every five years.

Controllability of a fixed site hazardous materials disaster is limited to SARA Title III enforcement; Local Emergency Planning Committee (LEPC) activities; hazardous materials, State, Federal, and private sector team response; local plans; zoning; and training of response and management forces for both public and private sectors.

Duration of an incident can be for as little as a few minutes to as long as several days, weeks, or months.

Scope of damage ranges with the severity of the incident but is generally localized unless vital community infrastructure is located nearby. See Appendix O for Tier II facilities.

Intensity of impact ranges with the scope of damage but may have an adverse impact on life safety as well as surrounding property conservation and facilities.

Predictability of a transportation hazardous material accident is uncertain; however, hazardous materials are commonly transported throughout Liberty County and beyond in quantities which, if released into the environment during an accident, could be harmful or injurious to humans, animals, property, and the economy.

Frequency of a transportation hazardous-material accident ranges from ten to fifteen minor or potential incidents a year to one of major consequence every five years.

Controllability of a hazardous-material disaster is limited to local plans, State and Federal routing controls, resources, State trucking law enforcement, and training of response and management forces.

Duration of an incident can be for as little as a few minutes to as long as several days or weeks.

Scope of damage ranges with the severity of the incident but is generally localized.

Intensity of impact ranges with the scope of damage and location of the incident.

Predictability of an incident is uncertain, despite pipeline companies’ routine maintenance and internal inspection of pipeline runs. High-pressure lines in Liberty County are located in the vicinity of the right of way of the GA&P Railroad and along Highway (Hwy) 69 south of the railroad to SR 1. The gas line runs west along SR 1 over the interstate bridge into Bayport. A terrorist attack on this gas line cannot be ruled out and must be planned for accordingly.

Frequency of a blowout is limited to two incidents in the last two years, both of which were minor in scope.

Controllability of a hazard is limited to the mitigation efforts of the industry, the State and Federal regulation, the local planning for warning and response, and the response of private and public teams.

Duration of an incident is generally short in nature, limited to no more than several hours.

Scope of damage is generally limited, except for evacuation.

Intensity of impact ranges with scope of damage in relation to location.

Predictability of a fuel or commodity shortage is based on the condition of world events, international tensions, transportation systems, and strikes, along with the impact of severe weather.

Frequency of a fuel or commodity shortage is limited to historical events.

Controllability of a fuel or commodity shortage is limited to the mitigation measures of conserving and rationing.

Duration of a fuel or commodity shortage could be from a few days to several years.

Scope of damage may be widespread, affecting life, property, and the economy depending on which product is involved.

Intensity of impact of a fuel or commodity shortage would seriously impair life, property, and the economy.

Predictability of a major fire is based on the condition of the environment to include buildings and facilities in the community along with the impact of weather.

Frequency of a major fire is based on Liberty County fire departments’ experience of thirty-two extra alarm fires each year. Of these, five exceed the third alarm. A fifth or greater alarm has been experienced on a once per decade basis.

Controllability of a major fire is limited to the efforts of firefighting and support agencies operating within the community pre-incident plan.

Duration of a major fire could be from a few hours to several days.

Scope of damage may be widespread, affecting life, property, and the economy.

Intensity of impact of a major fire would severely disable life, property, and the economy.

Predictability of a dam failure is based upon inspections by the Army Corps of Engineers and its classifications of dams. Liberty County has one roller compacting concrete dam classified as red (East Lake Dam). It is possible that an earthquake of more severity than expected may affect dam safety.

Frequency is limited to historical events and projection of dam failure based on scientific indicators and current conditions.

Controllability of a dam failure is based on dam safety inspection/compliance programs.

Duration of failure onslaught would be rapid, causing flooding of a major portion of the northwest section of Central City.

The scope of damage could range from minor flooding to the flooding of several hundred homes and businesses.

Intensity of impact ranges with scope of damage.

Predictability of an aircraft accident is based upon increased air traffic, unpredictable wind shear conditions, and other unknown contingencies.

Frequency of aircraft accidents, historically, has been three in ten years, two of which were minor incidents.

Controllability of aircraft accidents is limited to mitigation measures of air traffic control, land- use management of landing and takeoff approaches, and the state of readiness of local response services.

Duration of an incident can range from a few minutes to several days or weeks.

Scope of damage ranges with the intensity of the accident but is always localized. Passenger aircraft crash sites will be declared as biohazard sites.

Intensity of impact of an accident depends on the severity of the accident and the location and the type of aircraft involved.

Predictability of a civil disturbance is dependent on intelligence about the specific area involved. Areas of concern include Capital, Gish Island Wildlife Preserve, Columbia State University, Farmers A&M University, Columbia State Prison, Liberty County Detention Facility, Columbia Veterans’ Hospital, and Liberty County Health Department Family Health clinics and Animal Shelter. All may attract protests by groups or individuals that could escalate to civil disturbances.

Frequency of a civil disturbance is limited to historical events. Note that tensions existed in Liberty County during the late 1960s and 1970s but no events occurred.

Controllability of a civil disturbance depends on the rapid response of local law enforcement supplemented by available State police resources. National Guard involvement will need to be coordinated.

Duration of a civil disturbance could be from a few hours to more than a week.

Scope of damage would be limited, affecting life, property, and the economy in the immediate area only.

Intensity of impact of a civil disturbance would add strain to public facilities and resources along with other peaceful protests.

Predictability of a fixed nuclear facility incident is uncertain given the industry’s experience since Three Mile Island (TMI). The Edison Electric Company has operated the Blue Water Nuclear Power Plant for eighteen years. During this period, there have been ten incidents classified as unusual events in addition to three alerts. The plant is located 11.5 miles north of Central City on I-107. This means that Liberty County Emergency Management has responsibility for both the ten- mile Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) and the fifty-mile Ingestion Pathway Control Zone actions within Liberty County.

Frequency of a fixed nuclear facility incident above the classification level of an alert is estimated at one in 30 years but must be considered as a potential target for terrorist activity.

Controllability of a fixed nuclear facility incident is limited to operator training and maintenance/ safety programs at the facility along with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s resident inspector program and the utility off-site emergency training. Duration of an actual onslaught could range from hours to months or longer.

Scope of damages ranges from the sheltering of people in homes to evacuating a ten-mile EPZ within Liberty County and interdiction of the fifty-mile food ingestion pathway.

Intensity of impact ranges with scope of damage.

Predictability of a maritime incident is dependent on the volume and type of shipping using the coast and ports of Liberty County. The intra Coastal Water Way runs inside the Masland and Gish barrier islands. This mixes commercial and non-commercial traffic in the same seaways.

Frequency of a maritime incident is considered as a high probability with 18 minor events per year and one major every seven years.

Controllability of a maritime incident is dependent on size and scope of the involved vessels and the exact location versus the location of response agencies.

Duration of an actual incident could range from hours to months or longer.

Scope of damages ranges from the sheltering of people on cruise ships to major environmental issues resulting from fuel or chemical releases into environmentally sensitive areas.

Intensity of impact ranges with scope of damage.